Domestic economic data generally continues the trend of “stable and improving”, but deep-seated problems in economic operation still need to be solved. In 2017, we need to pay attention to five major “old problems” and Two “new worries”. At the same time, the current economy continues to stabilize at the bottom, but there are still many outstanding contradictions and problems, especially financial risks that continue to gather, and we must pay attention to prevent them.
There are still five major hidden dangers in economic operation. First, the debt ratio trends of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises have further diverged, and the efficiency of resource allocation has deteriorated. Judging from the asset-liability ratio indicator, since 2016, the overall leverage level of industrial enterprises above designated size has declined slightly. However, the development trends of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are different. The leverage ratio of the former has further increased, while the private sector has continued to deleverage. Although the total asset contribution rate of state-owned enterprises is significantly lower than that of private enterprises, credit resources are mostly invested in state-owned enterprises, and the debt risks of state-owned enterprises have also accumulated rapidly, which has led to a reduction in resource allocation efficiency to a certain extent. The contradiction between state-owned enterprise reform and the debt resolution of state-owned enterprises has also become increasingly prominent, increasing the pressure on Macroeconomic impact.
Second,debtrisks,especiallycorporatedebtdebtriskshavefurtherincreased,andthepromotionof”threecuts,onereductionandonesupplement”hasbeenintensified,aggravatingtheacceleratedreleaseofcreditrisksinexcessindustries.Whetherfromtheperspectiveofinternationalcomparisonoritsowndevelopment,mycountry’sdebtlevel,especiallythedebtlevelofnon-financialenterprises,hasaccumulatedtoaconsiderableextent.Infact,debtriskshaveexplodedatmanypointsinthepasttwoyears,whetherinbankloans,trustloansorthebondmarket,defaultshaveoccurredfrequently.2017isstillanimportantperiodforovercapacityreductionandstructuraladjustment.Asovercapacityreductionisintensifiedandexpanded,thedeleveragingpathwilladoptamarket-orientedandlegalapproach,whichmayresultinfurtherreleaseofcreditrisksforenterpriseswithexcessproductioncapacity..
Third,therealestatemarkethascooleddown,andweneedtobealerttothedownsideriskscausedbysqueezingbubbles.Withthedeclineinrealeconomicyieldsandtheriseinassetprices,the”disappearanceofrealfundsintovirtualfunds”hasbecomeincreasinglyprominent.Theexcessmoneyreleasedbymacro-stimuluspolicieshasbeenusedinthestockmarket,bondmarketandrealestateThemarketwaitsforopportunitiestoflow,formingdifferentassetbubbles.In2016,theperformancewasparticularlyprominentintherealestatemarket.Undertheinfluenceofcyclicalforcesandpolicies,thedevelopmentoftherealestateindustrymayonceagainenterashort-termadjustmentstage,andweneedtobealerttotheeconomicdownsideriskscausedbysqueezingbubbles.Therefore,undertheinfluenceofmacro-adjustmentpoliciesfocusingonriskprevention,thesqueezeofbubbleswillcontinue.
Fourth,thegrowthrateoffixedassetinvestmentfundingsourceshasdeclined,andthegrowthrateoffiscalrevenueAstheslowdowncontinues,infrastructureinvestmentwillfaceuncertaintyaboutfundingsources.Specifically,thefundswithinthenationalbudgethavecontinuedtogrow,butinthelaterperiodtheywillstillbeconstrainedbytheslowdowninfiscalrevenuegrowthcausedbyfactorssuchastheeconomicslowdownandstructuraltaxcuts.Thecontradictionbetweenfiscalrevenueandexpenditurehasfurtherintensified.Onthebasisofhighgrowth,fundswithinthebudgetwillcontinuetogrow.Climbingthestepsisdifficult.Fordomesticloans,whichaccountformorethan15%,withthecontinuationofthecentralbank’sprudentandneutralmonetarypolicy,theprobabilityofcreditgrowthimprovingsignificantlyissmall.Asthereturnoninvestmentintherealeconomydeclines,investmentconfidencehasbeenaffected.Self-raisedfundsbyenterprisesaccountingformorethan50%aredifficulttosignificantlyimprove,andthetrendofprivateinvestmentcontinuestogrowatalowrate.
Fifth,RMBexchangeratedepreciationisexpectedtocontinuetoexist.Exchangeratedepreciationwilltriggercapitaloutflows,andcapitaloutflowrisksstillneedtobepaidcloseattentionto.Theintensificationofglobalassetbubbleswillleadtoexpectationsoftighterliquidity.In2017,amidexpectationsofexternalshocksandtighteningofgloballiquidity,theriskofexcessiveRMBdepreciationandacceleratedcapitalflightstillexists.Inthecontextofmycountry’sinterestratemarketizationandexchangerateformationmechanismreformdevelopingindepth,changesindomesticandforeigninterestratespreadsandexchangeratespreadswilldrivevariouseconomicentitiestofindmarkets.Opportunitiesforinvestmentandspeculation,andintheshorttermcross-borderfundstwo-wayflowsandincreasedvolatilityareinevitable.IftheRMBdepreciatestooquicklyandcapitaloutflowsintensify,itwillformaviciouscyclewithdomesticcapitalmarketfluctuations,shrinkthespaceformonetarypolicyoperations,andmakethemoneymarketinterestratesrise.�,triggeringbondmarketrisks.
Inadditionto”oldworries”,therearetwo”newworries”thatarealsoworthyofattention.First,thepurchasepriceofrawmaterialshasrisensharply,thepricetransmissionmechanismisnotsmooth,andmanufacturingprofitsmayimproverepeatedly.Themanufacturingindustryisstillinanadjustmentcycle,andtheimprovementincorporateprofitsisnotduetosubstantialimprovementsinfundamentalsandincreaseddemand,buttoproductioncontractiondrivenbyovercapacityreduction,bulkcommoditiescausedbythereboundinpricesandrawmaterialprices.Atpresent,thepurchasepriceofrawmaterialshasrisensharply,andenterprisesarealsofacingdifficultiessuchascapitalturnoveranddebtrepaymentpressure.Thepossibilityofdeteriorationinmanufacturingprofitsinthefuturecannotberuledout.Second,theinterestratecenterhasmovedupward,andtheactualfinancingcostsofenterpriseshaveincreased.Whetheritisfrombondissuanceinterestrates,inter-banklendingratesorTreasurybondsYieldshaveallreboundedtovaryingdegrees.
Thecurrenteconomyshowsasustainedbottom-linestabilizationtrend,buttherearestillmanyoutstandingcontradictionsandproblems,especiallythecontinuedaccumulationoffinancialrisks.JudgingfromtheCentralEconomicWorkConference,economicworkin2017willfocusonsixmajordirections.
Thefocusofmacro-controlhasshiftedfrom”stabilizinggrowth”to”preventingrisks.” Judging from the policy goals in recent years, “preventing risks” was proposed for the first time in 2016. Last year’s Central Economic Work Conference “stabilized growth, promoted reform, adjusted structure, and benefited the people.” “Production and prevention of risks”. Although “prevention of risks” ranks last, in the process of actual policy formulation and introduction, the focus of macroeconomic policies has changed from nearly 10 The shift from “stable growth” to “risk prevention” in 2017. Suppressing asset bubbles will be further strengthened in 2017. At the same time, in the context of high leverage ratios, controlling the overall leverage ratio and reducing corporate leverage ratios are the top priorities. Central EconomyThe working meeting changed “expand the proportion of direct financing” to “increase equity financing”, which also made it clear that equity financing is an important way to resolve debt risks.
Under the background of stabilizing the bottom of the economy, economic work “seeks progress while maintaining stability”, and supply-side structural reforms continue to deepen. “Stability” is not only the environment for promoting reform, but also the goal of economic work. It is also the criterion and content for promoting reform. The Central Economic Work Conference added “promoting reform” to the policy objectives, highlighting the determination to further deepen reforms. At the same time, we will accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the reform of business-type state-owned enterprises. In addition, through product price and factor price reforms, we will continue to reform the land system and improve total factor productivity.
Under the background of risk prevention, monetary policy will tend to be neutral to tight, focusing on adjusting the monetary gate and maintaining a basic balance of liquidity. Under the current background of focusing on risk prevention, prevention of asset bubbles and deleveraging continue, and prudent monetary policy will be relatively tightened. With the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the trend of decline in foreign exchange holdings has brought about adjustments to the base money supply method, and under the environmental requirements of external exchange rate stabilization and internal deleveraging , the neutral to tight monetary policy maintains a basic balance of market liquidity by adjusting the monetary gate.
Fiscal policy will be more active and effective, and the structural control function will be strengthened. From the perspective of fiscal policy, expanding the fiscal deficit and cutting taxes and fees are currently necessary means to avoid the outbreak of large-scale defaults and create favorable survival conditions for enterprises. At the same time, we will continue to use government investment to stabilize the growth of demand, and increase investment in industries that still require heavy investment, such as infrastructure, senior care, medical care, and education, to bring sustainable income to enterprises; we will continue to reduce taxes and fees to reduce the operating burden of enterprises. , allowing corporate departments to operate and function normally.
Real estate regulation focuses on “stability”. This is not the first time that the establishment of a long-term mechanism has been proposed, and the emphasis is on implementation. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed the policy goal of “not only suppressing real estate bubbles, but also preventing ups and downs”, and once again proposed to accelerate research and establish a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of real estate that is in line with national conditions and adapts to market laws. Since real estate has a significant impact on economic growthChanghe and people’s livelihood, the first priority in its regulation is “stability”. To establish a long-term mechanism, we need to make a determined effort to reform the land system. Judging from the current situation, continued high-pressure real estate regulation will impact the market’s rigid expectations for housing prices, which will in turn deviate from the policy requirements of preventing large fluctuations in housing prices. It is necessary to seek a policy balance between suppressing asset bubbles and preventing large fluctuations in housing prices.
Formulate a strategy of “preventing risks and guarding the bottom line” to steadily resolve my country’s debt risks. In 2017, debt resolution will enter a critical stage, and the deleveraging idea of ”grasping the good and eliminating the bad” must be highlighted. On the one hand, the real economy must gradually reduce high leverage through sustained and steady economic growth; on the other hand, it must control the excessive increase in debt scale. At the same time, we encourage market-oriented debt-for-equity swaps, make full use of hybrid capital tools, and reduce the debt ratio of the real economy. In addition, we will increase financial deleveraging efforts, control market liquidity, and steadily resolve risks in the stock market, bond market, and financial products caused by increased leverage in the financial market.
(Original title: Economic stabilization is obvious and seven types of risks need to be prevented urgently)
-title”> (Original title: The economic stabilization trend is obvious and seven types of risks need to be prevented urgently)
(Editor: DF309)
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