Data show that global sales of new energy vehicles (including pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles) exceeded 140,000 units in November 2017, an increase of 16.64% from the previous month. From January to November 2017, global new energy passenger vehicle sales exceeded 1 million units, and annual sales are expected to exceed 1.1 million units.
According to data released by the China Automobile Association, my country’s new energy vehicle sales were 119,000 units in November; in the first 11 months, 609,000 new energy vehicles were sold. Industry insiders predict that the annual sales target of 700,000 new energy vehicles should be achieved, and sales in 2018 are expected to exceed 1 million.
It can be seen from the above data that new energy vehicles will develop rapidly and become a trend in the future. However, as the production and sales of new energy vehicles increase significantly, my country’s lithium hexafluorophosphate has experienced a sharp correction due to the concentrated release of new production capacity. As of early September, companies including Duofuo, Bikang, Tianci Materials, Shida Shenghua and other companies have added more than 12,000 tons of new production capacity this year. The imbalance between supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate has led to a sharp price correction since March this year, falling from 350,000 yuan/ton in March 2017 to 150,000 yuan/ton of polytetrafluoroethylene wax powder in September 2017, a drop of as much as 57.14%.
From January to September 2017, the new production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 12,000 tons
Based on current market prices, the main production costs of lithium hexafluorophosphate, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and lithium fluoride, account for more than 60% of the cost center. However, from the beginning of 2017 to the end of 2017, both anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and lithium salts experienced sharp increases. Among them, the price of lithium carbonate increased by 35.7% to 171,000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrogen fluoride increased by 88% to around 13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of core raw materials increased. Pushing up the cost center of lithium hexafluorophosphate; however, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate fell to around 150,000 yuan/ton in October 2017 before stabilizing.
The cost per ton of lithium hexafluorophosphate is obvious
Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and lithium fluoride are the core cost ends of lithium hexafluorophosphate
In the second half of 2017, with the growth of consumer electronics led by artificial intelligence, both 3C lithium batteries and power lithium batteries entered the peak consumption season from September. In October, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 7,000 units month-on-month to 65,000, a year-on-year increase of 102%. Driven by the new energy vehicle points policy and the peak production and sales season, the demand for lithium carbonate has recovered strongly. At the same time, domestic environmental protection inspections and other factors have impacted the production and supply of lithium salts. In the face of tight supply and demand Driven by the two-wheel drive of the trend, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to rise to the first line of 171,000 yuan/ton, and still maintains a large upward momentum.
In the first seven months, my country’s net imports of lithium carbonate have slowed down
Since the beginning of the year, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has continued to rise
The rising price of fluorite powder has pushed up the cost center, and the shutdown of hydrofluoric acid equipment has led to an imbalance in supply and demand. The average price of the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market in October hit a new high for the year: on the raw material end, the tight supply of fluorite supports the price and the price continues to rise. The cost center of aqueous hydrofluoric acid has moved up; at the same time, due to the influence of the 19th National Congress and environmental protection factors, hydrofluoric acid plants in production companies in Jiangxi and Shandong and other places have been shut down more often, resulting in tight market supply, and the average domestic market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid It has reached a new high this year, reaching around 13,000 yuan/ton.
Not only does the price of lithium carbonate continue to rise, but the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid also rises significantly
Judging from the recent demand for 3C electronics and the growth of global new energy vehicle production and sales, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2018 may reach between 34,000 and 38,000 tons. At the same time, in order to meet future growth demand, the total global lithium battery production may reach 182.3GW in 2018. Calculated based on the consumption of 1.5Kg of electrolyte per 1KWh lithium battery, 274,000 tons of electrolyte will be needed. Each ton of electrolyte consumes approximately 0.14 tons of lithium salt (assuming that all lithium hexafluorophosphate is used, and the current ratio between hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte is 1:7), which corresponds to the demand for 38,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. In 2018, the global demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 34,000 tons, which is relatively similar.
At the end of 2016, the global lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity only reached about 18,000 tons, and the new production capacity was mainly released in 2017. Even if all planned production capacity can be reached in 2017, the global lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity will expand to 39,400 tons/ Year; It is estimated that by 2018, the global production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate may reach about 42,000 tons. Calculated based on the industry’s 80-90% capacity utilization rate, the effective output is only between 33,600 and 37,800 tons, basically maintaining a balance between supply and demand. pattern. Therefore, in the long run, the future supply and demand balance of lithium hexafluorophosphate may form long-term support for prices.
2017 will be the year when the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is concentrated, and the future effective output may be controlled between 33,600 and 37,800 tons
At the same time, the raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate accounts for 50% of the cost of electrolyte, and the price of electrolyte has fallen simultaneously with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate. At present, the raw materials in the production cost of electrolyte are composed of lithium salt (mainly lithium hexafluorophosphate), solvents and additives. Among them, lithium hexafluorophosphate accounts for about 50% of the total cost of electrolyte. Both of them have the property of rising and falling together. Therefore, the price of raw materials for electrolyte is highWhile the sharp decline led to a reduction in costs, its own prices also fell sharply. In the second quarter of 2017, the average price of electrolyte fell to around 55,000 yuan/ton.
In the first half of 2017, the price of electrolyte fell simultaneously with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate
At present, the lowest price of some electrolytes has dropped to around 41,000 yuan/ton, which is close to the production cost line of lithium hexafluorophosphate outsourced electrolyte companies, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. But more importantly, as of the end of October, according to data from the China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association, the price of electrolyte has dropped to around 41,000-56,000 yuan/ton; in this context, companies with self-produced lithium hexafluorophosphate will have Great cost advantage. Based on the external selling price (tax included) of lithium hexafluorophosphate of 150,000 yuan/ton, if the electrolyte price fluctuates from 41,000 to 50,000 yuan/ton, the gross profit margin of electrolyte products produced by lithium hexafluorophosphate companies will be between 27.8% and 40.8%. time, and the gross profit margin of products of electrolyte companies that purchase lithium hexafluorophosphate as raw material may be between 11.2% and 27.2%. Therefore, from the perspective of corporate profitability, electrolyte prices may stop falling and stabilize.
