Although the chemical market demand has entered the off-season and the maintenance of various companies has also come to an end, the chemical market is still rising strongly as a whole, driven by some products. During the statistical period (06.30-07.13), the released chemical price index (CCPI) closed at 4577 points, an increase of 3.2%. Among the 160 products counted, 74 products increased, accounting for 46.3% of the total number of products; 52 products declined, accounting for 32.5% of the total number of products; a total of 34 products remained unchanged, accounting for 21.2% of the total number of products, and Compared with the previous period, the number of products rising has gradually increased.
TDI and MDI: The TDI market has rebounded from low levels in the past two days, with a daily increase of more than 1,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). Enterprises are in urgent need of inventory, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. The market is in chaos and the atmosphere of speculation is strong. In the second quarter, major enterprises conducted more maintenance, but enterprises tended to destock, the market fell more obviously, and many traders had no inventory. Recently, with the increase in orders from TDI companies, factories want to limit the supply and have a strong intention to support the market. Downstream buyers are buying up but not down, and inquiries are active, and the market has risen sharply. In addition, Gansu Yinguang’s 100,000-ton unit is scheduled for maintenance on the 17th, and there is still room for growth in the TDI market in the short term. The current tight supply of domestic polymeric MDI seems to have become the norm. Chongqing BASF’s operating rate has been low; the maintenance of Shanghai Lianheng and Ningbo Wanhua in May caused low inventory levels. Although it restarted in June, it is said that Lianheng’s crude MDI equipment has been unstable in shipments, which directly led to the decline of BASF and Huntsman. In addition, Covestro’s equipment has also been operating at low load recently, further intensifying the supply shortage. The market may remain elevated until supply issues are alleviated.
PTA: As one of the raw materials for polyester, the PTA market has been extremely hot recently. During the statistical period, the spot market increased by 10.3%, and the price in East China once again exceeded 5,000 yuan. This increase is mainly due to insufficient supply. Although Zhuhai BP restarted, Fujian Jialong Petrochemical began maintenance in July, while Yangzi Petrochemical, Hanbang Petrochemical and Pengwei Petrochemical delayed their restart. On the 11th, it was rumored that Hengli Petrochemical equipment failed to start operation as scheduled, and the restart was postponed to August. The PTA futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange directly rose to the limit. The positive supply side supports the market surge, and the high operating rate of downstream polyester ensures stable demand. The textile industry has good sales at low inventories, and PTA is expected to operate strongly in the short term.
Polyester and its raw materials: The crude oil market has shown a downward trend recently, but the ethylene glycol market has hardly been affected at all. In the second quarter, there were many ethylene glycol companies undergoing maintenance, such as Fushun Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Sinopec Hubei Fertilizer and many other coal-to-ethylene glycol units. Therefore, the domestic production load decreased, supporting the high market operation. At the same time, the port shipment situation has improved recently. The average monthly domestic import volume from April to May was less than that in the first quarter, and the inventory is currently showing a downward trend. Since June, downstream textile terminal demand has been good, ethylene glycol market sales are booming, electronic disks have been rising, and corporate quotations have continued to rise. Polyester ushered in an abnormal peak season in July. The downstream garment industry has repeatedly experienced large-scale shutdowns since September last year, creating a gap in the market. The environmental protection inspection at the end of June involved the printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and many companies suspended production for rectification. The gradual improvement of the domestic economy has expanded the demand in the textile market. The sales of polyester yarn products are booming, the inventory is insufficient, and the quotations are rising. The long-term sluggish market speculation has ushered in an outbreak, and polyester is expected to continue to rise in the market outlook.
Prospects
The maintenance of some enterprises has resulted in tight product supply, and fundamental support is still the main factor for the current strong market operation. The lackluster market conditions during the peak season in the first half of the year prompted companies to actively implement destocking policies, and the upward trend in the market in July proved to be effective.
The recent performance of futures has been strong, and most of them have shown an upward trend, especially the black series of coke, thermal coal and asphalt, which have eye-catching performance. The former may be related to seasonal electricity consumption. Related to needs. The overall rise in the futures market will drive the spot market up.
International crude oil fluctuated repeatedly in the first half of the month, but it gradually drifted away from the trend of the domestic chemical market. The trend of some products that rely on imports runs counter to that of crude oil. Although the production limit agreement has been extended, it does not impose much restrictions on oil-producing countries. Currently, most industry insiders are bearish on the future oil prices.
The peak season is not busy in the first half of the year, and the off-season is not weak. July is already halfway through, and after August, we are one step closer to the Golden Nine and Silver Ten. At present, most people in the industry are still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year. trend, it is expected that the market will continue to be dominated by strong fluctuations in the short term.
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