In 2016, the global oil price remained at around US$50, and the price of coating raw materials showed a different trend. Analyst Wang Zhishun deeply analyzed the market structure of China’s coating raw materials in 2016, from international crude oil to the price trends and market demand of various coating raw materials. Wang Zhishun said that among the products monitored in 2016, 91% of paint raw material products increased in price, while only 9% of raw material prices fell.
Competition in the industry with excess emulsion production capacity is becoming increasingly fierce
In 2016, domestic acrylic emulsion production capacity was 3.4 million tons, an increase of 14.9% compared with 2015. However, the operating rate has dropped significantly. It is expected that the average operating rate for the whole year of 2016 will be less than 70%, and the total output in 2016 will be around 2.24 million tons. It can be seen from the statistics of acrylic emulsion production capacity, output, and operating rate in recent years that although acrylic emulsion production capacity continues to grow, the rate has slowed down and the operating rate has declined year by year, indicating that emulsion production capacity is facing excess capacity and industry competition has become increasingly fierce.
The main downstream of acrylic emulsion is water-based architectural coatings, accounting for about 74% of the total downstream consumption of acrylic emulsion, followed by textile and paper adhesives, accounting for 8% each and 7%. The total output of acrylic emulsion in 2016 is expected to be around 2.24 million tons, of which the consumption of architectural coatings is expected to be around 1.6576 million tons. my country’s acrylic emulsion production capacity is mainly concentrated in East China, followed by South China and North China, and production plants are mainly concentrated in surrounding coastal provinces. Jiangsu and Shanghai account for the largest share of production capacity in East China.
With short-term cost support, we estimate that the domestic acrylic emulsion price will remain at 9,500-10,000 yuan/ton in 2017. However, manufacturers such as Rizhao Guangda and Polyjia have built or expanded new buildings. Production capacity and on-site supply are sufficient, and market competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The possibility of decline throughout 2017 cannot be ruled out.
The overall price of epoxy resin shows a “W” trend
In 2016, most of my country’s epoxy resin downstream industries maintained a relatively stable state. Among them, the demand for composite materials changed from the rapid expansion in the previous two years, and the demand for powder coatings and electronic and electrical The demand performance of large industries is average, and the market’s rigid demand is expected to have room for a narrow decline.
In 2016, the price of solid epoxy resin in my country showed a “W” trend as a whole, and the overall price was lower than the same period in previous years for a long time. Among them, from March to May and from July to October, market prices experienced two rounds of increases supported by raw material costs. However, the overall demand during the year was lower than the same period in previous years. Manufacturers’ shipments were not good and profit margins were also squeezed. In 2015, the average solid price in the East China market was 12,873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.59% from the average price in 2014. From the beginning of 2016 to the end of October, the average price of solid resin in the East China market was 11,250 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 15.35%. Bisphenol A60-70%.
It is expected that the price trend of China’s epoxy resin in 2017 will still fluctuate mainly with the cost of raw materials. Affected by downstream demand, profit margins will improve or worsen in the short term. It is expected that in the first quarter, domestic The price range of solid epoxy resin in East China is 10,600-12,000 yuan/ton.
China’s TDI price trend remains weak in 2017
According to statistics, China’s apparent TDI consumption in 2016 was approximately 684,000 tons, an increase of 4.14% from 656,800 tons in 2015. In 2016, so far, apparent consumption has increased significantly. The overall consumption in 2016 is expected to increase slightly from 2015.
In 2016, the TDI market went haywire. Global decapacity led to an imbalance in TDI supply and demand, prices skyrocketed, and domestic exports hit a record high! People in the market shouted that it was unexpected. Under this situation, downstream companies are suffering from high prices of raw materials and are paying attention to the production and operation of suppliers during the National Day holiday. European Covestro encountered another force majeure problem in the supply of raw material nitric acid. After the National Day holiday, TDI’s unprecedented power ushered in the strongest outbreak in history, and the TDI market price successfully exceeded the 50,000 yuan/ton mark. The average annual price in 2016 (1-10) increased by 34.03% compared with 2015.
It is expected that China’s TDI price trend will remain weak in 2017, and the price range throughout the year will be relatively narrow, basically maintaining a smooth trend of 20,000-25,000 yuan/ton.
() Deep cultivation In the segmented industry of polyurethane raw materials – amine catalysts; research, development and compound production of various types of amine catalysts; main products: A-33|33LV|CS90|C225|GSY9727|SMP|Z-131|solidamineetc., suitable for end products such as sponge, molding, high resilience, self-crusting, PU toys and various hard and semi-hard foams.
