Oriental Fortune Network summarizes the investment opinions of major market institutions and celebrities to help you seize investment opportunities. Ren Zeping of Founder Securities said that four factors determine that it will be difficult to introduce a personal housing property tax in the short term; Morgan Stanley raised the MSCI China Index target level by 10% and is optimistic about 14 stocks; World Bank economists did not change their bearish view and reiterated that gold prices will fall by 8%.
This year’s economic growth is likely to show a trend of highs and lows. It may reach 7% in the first quarter, and may fall back in the second and third quarters. The GDP growth rate for the whole year may be slightly lower than last year. , around 6.6%. Last year’s GDP growth, real estate’s contribution was about 0.3 percentage points. At present, the growth rate of real estate investment is still relatively high. The growth rate of real estate investment in the first half of this year will not be too low, and may still be around 6%-7%. In addition, the transmission effect of infrastructure investment growth has been demonstrated to a certain extent in the midstream and downstream industries, and the growth of the midstream and downstream industries may rebound. Therefore, the first quarter data will be better. However, due to shrinking real estate sales, investment in real estate development is expected to fall back in the second half of this year. Overall, economic growth in the second half of the year will be slightly lower than that in the first half.
Shao Yu: Rising PPI will be moderately transmitted to CPI
Rising PPI will be moderately transmitted to CPI. After the price of raw materials rises, there will be price increase requirements for end products. However, due to the surplus of end products and limited demand, the transmission will be relatively mild. This year’s supply-side reform will receive more policy support, and agricultural product prices may rise, which will have a certain impact on the rise in CPI. We predict that the CPI may exceed 3% in some months, but the core for the whole year should be between 2.5% and 2.8%.
Zhu Baoliang: This year there will be a situation of “good macroeconomics but bad microeconomics”
Specifically, the growth rate in the first and second quarters may reach 6.6%. If no measures are taken in the third and fourth quarters, economic growth may fall below 6.5%. This year, the price index has risen year-on-year, and corporate profits will also increase year-on-year. Statistics show that the macroeconomy is performing well. But in fact, life is not easy for enterprises because prices have not increased month-on-month. Companies pay more attention to the month-on-month period. For example, prices this month are higher than last month, and today are higher than yesterday. Therefore, this year’s economic performance is likely to be “good at the macro level but bad at the micro level”.
Luo Sikai pointed out that to put it simply, Asian stocks are currently valued at a relatively low price, around 13 times. In the past six or seven years, the earnings of these listed companies have not been ideal, but as inflation expectations rise, In this environment, in addition to value growth, there is also profit improvement. Combining these two points, Luo Sikai believes that the risk-reward ratio of Asian stock markets will be very attractive.
Morgan Stanley raised the MSCI China Index target by 10% and is optimistic about 14 stocks
Morgan Stanley raised the MSCI China Index’s 2018 earnings per share forecast by 10% to 5.7 US dollar, this forecast is still 5% lower than the market consensus estimate of US$5.9, and the Shanghai Stock Index’s target level for 2017 is still 4,400 points. Regarding this situation, Morgan Stanley recommended 14 stocks: AIA, Anta Sports, AVIC, BBMG, Bank of China Hong Kong, Brilliance China Automobile, China Construction Bank, Yangtze Power, China Overseas Development, China Galaxy, Hengda Swiss Medicine, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Tencent Holdings, ZTO Express.
Essence Strategy: Focus on Shanghai State-owned Enterprise Reform Concept Stocks
At this point in time, we believe that the most prominent aspect of the reform of state-owned enterprises is the reform of Shanghai state-owned enterprises. Shanghai, as the current round of state-owned enterprise reform, As a local vanguard, the market has strong expectations for the reform of state-owned enterprises in Shanghai before the two sessions every year. The Shanghai State-owned Assets and State-owned Enterprises Work Conference just held on February 16 also attracted the attention of the market again. At the beginning of the year, the Shanghai version of employee stock ownership opinions was issued; on February 20, Shanghai retail giant Bailian Group also announced a strategic cooperation with Alibaba. All signs indicate that this year will be an extraordinary year for the reform of Shanghai state-owned enterprises.
Yang Delong: Focusing on the Two Sessions, the Belt and Road Initiative will usher in major development opportunities
The National Two Sessions will be held in March 2017, which has become a hot spot of recent attention. Looking at the economic development situation at home and abroad, the “Belt and Road” strategy will usher in key progress in 2017. In May this year, the “Belt and Road” International Cooperation Summit Forum to be held in Beijing and the BRICS Summit in September will further promote the “Belt and Road” strategy and cooperation with related countries and regions.
British Investment Company: China’s current investment opportunities are in the stock market
There are quite good investment opportunities in the stock market. There are many wonderful stocks in China, and sometimes their stock prices are quite cheap due to political, economic or market liquidity reasons. Their revenue is immune to most of the things we worry about.
Regarding media reports that “in addition to regular open market operations, the central bank has increased directional operations,” we believe this is a neutral measure by the central bank to hedge liquidity. According to our estimates, the excess reserve ratio has recently fallen to 1.3%, which is historically low. After the 15th day of the first lunar month, the capital market quickly returned to a tight situation, indicating that liquidity was indeed scarce. In the context of negative growth in foreign exchange holdings, the supply of base money relies on the central bank. At this time, it is useful for the central bank to moderately release liquidity.To prevent excessive liquidity stress.
Since entering 2017, the gold market has risen by more than 7%, which is an eye-catching performance. However, an economist from the World Bank expressed his refusal to cut it and reiterated that the gold price this year Will fall to $1,150 per ounce.
India’s large imports of wheat will stir up global food prices
Forecast data shows that India’s wheat production this year may be lower than the Indian government’s expectations, prompting the country to stockpile domestic stocks Against the background of the decline, a large amount of wheat is imported. Bloomberg surveyed eight traders and analysts. The survey results show that these traders and analysts expect India’s wheat production to reach 91 million tons in the 2016-2017 harvest year, recording the lowest level since the 2014-2015 harvest year. For this season, the Indian government’s estimate is 96.6 million tons. In addition, these traders and analysts also predict that India will import 2 million tons of wheat in the 2017-2018 harvest year, recording the second highest level in 11 years.
Why may oil prices never return to $100?
The crude oil market has been suffering for the past two years or so from a lingering global glut that may never truly be eliminated, according to one industry expert . Spencer Dale, chief economist at oil giant BP, pointed out that the global crude oil market has been hit by abundant crude oil, which will put pressure on the industry for decades to come.
France’s Société Générale (SocGen) wrote an article on Thursday (February 23) stating that political risks are beginning to be taken seriously by euro investors.
Danske Bank: USD/CAD first rises and then falls in the short term. Where is the target heading?
Danske Bank recently wrote an article analyzing the market outlook of the US dollar/Canadian dollar. In the short term, it is expected to rise first and then fall.
BlackRock: Although the Fed has not said it explicitly, politics is important in the timing of the next interest rate hike
BlackRock fund manager Bob Miller said on Wednesday (February 22) ) said in the report that although it now appears that there is a “reasonable possibility” that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its March meeting, Fed policymakers will want to know what fiscal policy the Trump administration will launch. <!–
