The latest CITIC Chemical Industry Prosperity Index we monitor is 26.70, which was 15.91 last week. The prosperity index has rebounded, and inventory replenishment continues. According to the operating rules of the inventory cycle, we judge that this round of inventory recovery is expected to last until April, which is conducive to the second level Market risk appetite rebounded. Last week, the secondary market basic chemicals index (CITIC) rose 2.07%, and the Shanghai Composite rose 1.80%. Oil prices held steady. Brent settled at US$56.72/barrel on Friday, down 0.16% on the week. Currently, oil prices are still facing pressure from the increase in the number of US shale oil rigs, and oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the near future. The number of oil rigs in the United States in the week of February 10 was 591, an increase of 8 from the previous month and an increase of 17 from the previous value. Since oil prices have led the number of rigs for about three months, we predict that the number of U.S. crude oil rigs is expected to continue to rise in the near future.
Focus on dyes, soda ash, agrochemical sector (pesticides, urea), silicone, OLED materials, and titanium dioxide. The dye peak season is approaching, industry inventories are low, and stricter environmental protection is expected to lead to production capacity contraction. Leading companies have jointly raised prices, and dye prices are expected to rise strongly. Pay attention to Zhejiang Longsheng, Yabang Shares, and Runtu Shares. Soda ash inventories have rebounded after the holiday and prices have fallen slightly. However, after the Lantern Festival, the inventory is expected to be digested as downstream workers resume work. Focus on Shandong Haihua, Yuanxing Energy, Sanyou Chemical, and Shuanghuan Technology. The price of urea in the agrochemical sector continues to rise, tariffs on chemical fertilizers have been cancelled, and the spring plowing season is approaching. Prices are expected to continue to rise. Focus on Yangmei Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hubei Yihua, and Luxi Chemical. As the price of upstream raw materials falls, glyphosate has fallen back. The price in East China is 24,000 yuan/ton. We are optimistic about the stock replenishment market of glyphosate and pay attention toXingfa Group, Jiangshan Co., Ltd., Xin’an Co., Ltd., and Hebang Biotechnology , Yangnong Chemical. Pay attention to Yangnong Chemical and Changqing Shares which have relatively low valuations in the agrochemical sector. The cost of organic silicon has increased. Jiangxi Xinghuo has recently begun maintenance and Dow Corning Wacker has stopped its operations. Prices are expected to continue to rise. Pay attention to Xin’an Co., Ltd., Xingfa Group, and Sanyou Chemical. We are optimistic about the OLED industry chain in the long term. We recommend Wanrun Shares and Wanshun Shares (flexible display water vapor barrier film + lithium battery cathode aluminum foil) with high performance growth. Other attention >Kang Dexin, Puyang Huicheng. Supply-side reform will speed up the clearance of titanium dioxide production capacity, focusing on Bililian, Anada, and CNNC Titanium Dioxide. At the same time, we are optimistic about Stanley and Jinzhengda, which have good performance and are extending into agrochemical services. Other stocks recommended are Yaben Chemical, Wanhua Chemical, etc. Tetrafluoroethane (East China): The quotation of tetrafluoroethane in East China this week was 22,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 12.5%; from the upstream point of view, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid continued to rise strongly, and tetrafluoroethane manufacturers due to secondary The hydrochloric acid produced expanded the warehouse and the load declined. High costs and declining market supply have driven up the price of tetrafluoroethane; from a downstream perspective, the traditional peak season for air-conditioning sales is coming from March to June. Domestic air-conditioning inventories are generally low, and downstream purchases will gradually increase. Rising demand will drive up the price of tetrafluoroethane. rise. Related listed companies: Juhua Shares. Ammonium chloride (Shaanxi): The price of ammonium chloride in Shaanxi this week was 550 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 12.24%. From the supply side, domestic manufacturers mostly control ammonium chloride shipments by temporarily not accepting orders and waiting to purchase, which makes the supply of ammonium chloride tight; from the demand side, the arrival of spring has led to an increase in demand, and the rise in urea prices has also It has a boosting effect on the rise in ammonium chloride prices. Supply and demand work together to promote the rise in ammonium chloride prices. Related listed companies:Shuanghuan Technology.
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