Recently, when compound fertilizer factories are building warehouses for fertilizer raw materials in autumn, the price advantage of ammonium chloride is highlighted. The factory has a large number of orders to be sent, and the supply of wet ammonium is tight. It is common to restrict or block orders. The performance of dry ammonium is relatively dull. Factories have a certain amount of inventory and price increases are blocked. Most of them use increases to promote stability. The current ex-factory price of dry ammonium in Jiangsu is 720-730 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of wet ammonium is 600-640 yuan/ton; the amount of wet ammonium in Hubei is small and some of it is for self-use, the ex-factory price is 650 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of dry ammonium is 710-730 yuan/ton; Sichuan Dry ammonium leaves the factory at 720-750 yuan/ton; dry ammonium in Henan is delivered at 780 yuan/ton, and wet ammonium is delivered at around 680 yuan/ton.
At present, the overall operation of the joint-alkali plant is around 80%. A large factory in Jiangsu maintains low-load production, and early maintenance equipment in Sichuan has restarted. Some factories in Shaanxi and Anhui have low loads, while other factories maintain high-load production. In addition, it is understood that the Debang device in Huainan, Jiangsu has a maintenance plan in August, which will last about 15-20 days, and orders are now closed; Xinghua, Shaanxi has a maintenance plan in the near future, and the shutdown time is to be determined; factories in Hubei have maintenance plans at the end of the month or early next month; Tianjin Bohua’s hydraulic unit is undergoing rotational maintenance, and the daily output will be reduced to about 1,000 tons; Dalian Dahua has plans to resume production in mid-August, but the specific ignition date has not yet been determined. In addition, the soda ash market is poor, and it cannot be ruled out that some companies have temporary load reduction plans. The adjustment of operating rate still plays a decisive role in market trends.
In terms of demand, the overall operating capacity of downstream compound fertilizer plants is around 50%, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Autumn fertilizer production requires more wet ammonium, while the operating capacity of wet ammonium equipment is low and the supply of goods is tight. On the contrary, the load of the dry ammonium device is high, while the demand from the extruded pellet factory is light, so the purchase volume of dry ammonium is small, and most of the dry ammonium is harvested as needed. Therefore, the price increases slowly, and the increase is mostly used to promote stability. In addition to domestic demand, export support is also very obvious. According to customs statistics, my country’s total export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizers from January to May was 348,800 tons, an increase of 11.21% over the same period last year. Some traders said they are still very optimistic about the export market outlook. While distributing domestic production capacity, it will be conducive to the stability of domestic market prices.
Taken together, the large volume of orders to be shipped and the low inventory of the Lianjia plant will still provide favorable support for the market. The tight balance between supply and demand will last throughout July and August. In addition, the price of urea remains high and the advantage of ammonium chloride’s low price is highlighted. The industry We have a stable bullish attitude towards the market outlook. However, due to constraints such as low agricultural product prices and limited downstream purchasing efforts, Jin Lianchuang predicts that ammonium chloride will have limited upside potential in the later period, and the increase will be difficult to exceed 50 yuan/ton. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the operation of the joint alkali unit and changes in downstream demand.
On the one hand, 80% of the construction work of Lianjia Enterprises has been started, and judging from the progress of enterprise maintenance, whether it is a good thing or a bad thing remains a variable. It is understood that a few large ammonium chloride factories in Jiangsu are producing at low load. A factory in Sichuan is undergoing maintenance until mid-month. A few companies in Shaanxi and Anhui are reducing production. The remaining factories are operating under normal or high-load conditions. According to China Fertilizer Network According to statistics, the overall industry operating rate of Lianjia Enterprises is currently at 80.4%. However, at the end of the month or the beginning of next month, a few ammonium chloride companies in Tianjin and central China have load reduction maintenance or inspection suspension plans. Under double inspections of environmental protection and safety inspections, and the soda ash market is poor, it cannot be ruled out that some companies may also temporarily reduce their loads. possible, so the impact of adjustments in ammonium chloride enterprise operating rates on market trends needs to be paid attention to at any time.
On the other hand, demand density is not concentrated enough. The demand for wet ammonium in the autumn fertilizer market is high, and the operating rate of wet ammonium equipment is low, so the supply is tight. On the contrary, the load of domestic dry ammonium equipment is high and the supply is large, while the overall compound fertilizer industry operating rate has only slightly increased to about 45.78%. The autumn fertilizer production progress is slow, and due to environmental protection inspections, raw materials are prohibited from being piled in the open. Extruded granular ammonium chloride companies have few shipments, and the demand is light. For the raw material dry ammonium, Cabot Carbon Black purchases less. From the perspective of demand, the operation of picking at any time is more common.
However, the benefits of the rising ammonium chloride market are also slightly obvious. In addition to domestic demand, the export market is also showing support for the domestic market. From January to May this year, my country exported a total of 348,800 tons of ammonium chloride for fertilizers, and a total of 313,700 tons in the same period last year. From January to May this year, China exported nitrogen and phosphorus chloride. Yuanfei exported a total of 453,900 tons, and a total of 399,600 tons were exported in the same period last year. According to some traders, the export market is still relatively objective so far, which supports the domestic market. Furthermore, urea boosts ammonium chloride. This time India The number of winning bids for urea in China is pending. The domestic market continues to ferment and prices are consolidating at a high level. For example, the delivery price of urea from compound fertilizer companies in Linyi is around 1960-1970 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory quotation of dry ammonium in Jiangsu is around 700-750 yuan/ton. The freight to Shandong is basically around 45-80 yuan/ton, which is advantageous over urea. The more urea prices increase, the more ammonium chloride will make a profit.
Finally, overall, from the perspective of ammonium chloride supply alone, the market is hardly positive, but there is a boost from exports, a small amount of domestic demand for autumn fertilizer reserves, and a certain degree of support from urea. It is expected that in the short term, chlorine The trend of ammonium chemicals is relatively optimistic. After the factory price adjustment, it is waiting for downstream digestion and acceptance. The market will inevitably fall into a stalemate game. It is expected that the increase will be limited due to the excessive start-up of enterprises.
